Wrote it long back when Lula got elected. Had plans of sending it to publication in some news papers, but things evolved too quickly and by the time I was done with the article, it was irrelevant. Publishing it here unedited/first-draft:
Introduction
The recent protests post the Brazilian presidential elections reached their crescendo on the afternoon of 8th of January when hoards of Bolsonaristas stormed the Supreme Federal Court, the National Congress and the Presidential Palace one week after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took charge for his third term. Meanwhile, supporters of the outgoing president have been registering their resentment since October end, when the results of the narrowly won elections were declared. These protests have often taken violent and dangerous forms ranging from stand-offs with police and threatening burning of students to nazi salutes and attempts at bombing the airport. As a continuing leader of these protesters, Bolsonaro left Brazil for Florida on 30th of December, 2 days before his term ended, where he claims to be undergoing treatment for an abdominal pain. A global outcry has since taken voice against the virtual sanctuary granted to him under the US A-1 visa reserved for foreign leaders.
Bolsonaro’s Legacy
Given his short tenure, Bolsonaro was able to cause sufficient tremors to get noticed in the long history of Brazil’s already troubled political annals. While being politically active for more than 27 years after a troubled career at the military, where he was accused of plans to plant bombs in military units in Rio, Bolsonaro’s election in 2018 was a lesson on political opportunisms. He changed parties flippantly when it suited him, positioned himself as the outsider keeping up with the trend in vogue globally, and once elected, filled key positions with army loyalists who toed his line. He was also helped by anti-incumbency in the backdrop of Dilma Rousseff’s ignominious ouster from office and the Petrobras investigations. Four years later, his departure has left Brazil deeply divided. Vast numbers of Brazilian farmers and industrialists continue to hold deep liking for Bolsonaro, his conservative social stance and market friendly policies. The recent numbers validate Brazilian economy showing better than expected growth(perhaps a heartbreaking redemption for Bolsonaro) and has been able to stay afloat despite strong global headwinds in the wake of COVID-19.
During his tenure, Bolsonaro took strong stance on conservative issues such as abortion, same-sex marriages, climate denial, christian values, gun liberalization and drove his populace with charismatic zeal. Indigenous people became a popular target of his government and its supporters with hostile land takeovers and evangelical theme in school curriculum a popular choice. Of pressing importance to the world has been his anti-climate stance and rapid rate of deforestation in the Amazon rain-forests. Increasing demand for subsistence agriculture to grow soy and rear cattle for beef and leather trades has been responsible for about 80 % of deforestations in the Amazon. In defiance to the global attitude to climate change, Bolsonaro withdrew from hosting the 2019 COP, a sharp contrast to Lula’s offer to host the next conference in 2025.
Bolsonaro was also the prominent face of anti-globalism in Latin America. Lula’s election will bring most of South America under left-wing governments, a marked change from how this part of the world looked in 2018. His departure will also cause caution in the galleries of power of its northern hegemon, which has historically not taken kindly to left-wing winds in the Southern continent. To make matters worse for the agencies within Brazil, Bolsonaro left with allegations of foul-play during the election. This has put him in the bad books of the Supreme Court and other major Brazilian institutions, with whom he enjoyed support for much of his tenure. The institutions, however, have shown intent and resilience to uphold the Constitution during the recent protests and if it comes to a trial, Bolsonaro may have hurt his chances of an easy parole.
Lula’s Challenges
As the face of left-wing Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), Lula narrowly defeated Bolsonaro with 50.9% votes in the second-round run-offs on October 30th. Governments of the world were quick to congratulate and consolidate his victory as an acknowledgment of fair play. While Bolsonaro tacitly accepted the results by agreeing to oversee the transition, his supporters ran amok with demands for a coup. Lula, meanwhile, comes with a coalition government of ten parties and support from centralists(Partido Social Democratico(PSD) and Uniao Brasi) will be critical in getting half the seats in the two houses of congress and enabling major promises being cleared.
Much different from his last rule in 2010, Lula withholds the future of an altered Brazilian populace. The pressures to cut government spending in face of double-digit inflation are climbing from investors across the world. With interest rates hovering close to 12% and growth rates lower than 1 %, sovereign debt is an increasingly expensive instrument to finance the social promises PT has made. Unfortunately, the immediate route has been amendments to a sound and celebrated law capping government spending which came into force in 2016. The year was also precepitous in bringing guardrail measures to avoid croony captalism. The workers party has been lobbying to remove rules restricting politically active members from being appointed as senior officials in public companies or regulatory bodies. Such actions have put investors and the international community in jeopardy over the new elect and his bargaining power over members of his coalition.
One major area where Lula has openly aligned with the western values is that of climate. While serious threats to the Amazon rainforests as oxygen lungs for earth had already begun in the 70s, no political regime had so openly digressed from environemntal consearvation as Bolsonaro. In November, Lula attended the COP27 in Egypt as the president-elect and promised to create a climate envoy similar to the place occupied by John Kerry in the US. He went on with the offer to host the next COP conference in 2025 in Belem- a town in the Amazon rainforests. Such signaling is good for the western leaders who found themselves at odds with Bolsonaro’s values. The much awaited trade deal between EU and MERCOSUL(the South American customs union) has been delayed at the peril of both continents and environmental disregard of the previous regime was a major factor holding Europe back.
India’s Hopes
The Indian regime had cozied up to Bolsonaro’s strong-man government over the past 5 years. With much fan-fare, Jair Bolsonaro was the chief guest at the Republic Day celebrations in 2020. Going out of the way, the Indian administration had offered its home-made vaccine(Covaxin) for export to Brazil during the COVID-19 crisis. The offer was later rejected by the Brazilian agencies citing efficacy and quality issues. Thankfully, India and Brazil have much greater stakes at play which wont be affected much by personalities of leadership. In an increasingly fragmented global politics and lack of leadership from the west in the Ukrainian war, the South-South cooperation has found renewed clamor of supporting voices. Besides, with BRICS lying in tatters thanks to divergent goals of Russia and China, the IBSA(India, Brazil, South Africa) forum must hold the mantle of global south and voice opinions of vast populace which go unheard. Brazil has similar goals when it comes to reforms in U.N Security Council along with German, India and Japan which led these countries to for the G-4 in 2010. With India holding the G-20 baton this term, it will be crucial for both countries to bring to the fore issues of climate, security, energy and representation. Both large countries can be voices of sanity in negotiating peace between Ukraine and Russia, and carry the weight of standing their grown without being cowed by the bigger powers. There are great trade opportunities in agriculture, manufacturing and services that have so far remained ignored or unexplored. These have been detailed and branded since BRICS became musclular version of alternative to the Non-Aligned Movement(NAM), two decades ago. It will remain to the leaders and decision makers to chart out a path for co-operation and synergies between these giants of the global south.